#33 My Nightstand - The Perception Gap: Why Things Are Better Than We Think
This week, I am looking at the overwhelming negative and divisive noises we get from the world and compare it with what real data is saying. Are we getting better or worse?
Welcome to “My Nightstand”!
This newsletter plays around the concept of three things that I have on my nightstand when I go to bed: 1) a book, 2) a piece of content that inspired me 3) a quote or a reflection on self-improvement, life or work.
WHAT’S IN THIS EDITION:
1) What I am reading this week…;
2) A reflection on the “Perception gap”: why do we feel things are getting worse?;
3) A question for the reader;
Let’s get into it, and subscribe to stay updated for the next issues and join a growing community of like-minded smart people!
1. What I am reading/listening to this week
Lex Fridman and Dario Amodei, an inspiring conversation on AI, and humanity. It is a 5+ hrs conversation that you can listen over different days:
Diary of a CEO Podcast: a conversation with Dr. Thomas Seyfried. Super interesting episode where Dr. Seyfried explains why he thinks sees cancer as a metabolic disease:
“Why AI won’t cause unemployment” by
:
2. A reflection on the “Perception gap”: why do we feel things are getting worse?
The recent U.S. election results have dominated conversations, news cycles, and social media feeds, all around the world. Regardless of political leanings, there's a palpable sense of anxiety about the future. Combined with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East, increasing climate-related disasters (a thought and a hug to the great people in Valencia) and economic uncertainty, it's no wonder many feel we're living in particularly troubled times.
These concerns aren't isolated. Scroll through any news feed, and you'll find a cascade of troubling headlines:
Wars raging across multiple continents
Record-breaking temperatures and natural disasters
Political polarization reaching new heights
Cost of living pressures affecting millions
Democratic institutions under strain globally
It's enough to make anyone question whether we're witnessing a unique decline in human progress. The weight of these concurrent crises can feel overwhelming, suggesting we're at a historical low point.
But here's where things get interesting – and perhaps hopeful. When we step back from the immediate crises and look at longer-term trends, a different picture emerges. This isn't to minimize current challenges; they're real and require urgent attention. However, understanding the broader context of human progress might help us approach these challenges with clearer perspective and more effective solutions.
The Reality Gap
Let's start with what many people feel about the state of the world:
🔍 Common Perceptions:
Rising crime and violence everywhere
Increasing global poverty
Declining education standards
Growing environmental disasters
Worsening quality of life
More conflict and instability
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The data tells a remarkably different story:
📊 What the Numbers Show:
Global extreme poverty has plummeted from 36% in 1990 to less than 10% today
Violent crime rates in many countries are at historic lows
Global literacy has risen from 70% to nearly 87% since 1990
Child mortality has been cut in half over the last 30 years
Access to electricity, clean water, and education is at all-time highs
Life expectancy continues to rise globally
Understanding the Disconnect
This gap between perception and reality isn't random. It's rooted in how our minds work and how we receive information in the modern world:
The Brain's Threat Detection System
We're wired to notice dangers due to our evolutionary system;
Negative information receives priority processing in our brain. This is why the news on TV or newspapers highlight mostly negative stories;
Gradual improvements are harder to perceive than sudden problems.
The Media Landscape
Crisis generates engagement, especially in a world driven by social media metrics;
Good news rarely makes headlines;
Social media amplifies negative content, for the engagement flywheel;
We're exposed to every global problem instantly, thanks and caused by the interconnected world we live in right now.
Cognitive Biases
Present bias: overweighting current problems;
Nostalgia bias: idealizing the past - “things were better once” - how many times have you heard this?
Availability bias: recent negative events feel more representative.
The Power of Progress
Understanding this disconnect changes how we approach global challenges:
✨ Key Insights:
Progress is real but often invisible, because it is gradual and not as loud as negative events;
Improvements happen gradually while setbacks feel sudden;
Being informed about positive trends reduces unnecessary anxiety;
We can acknowledge problems while recognizing improvements;
Understanding progress patterns helps us solve current challenges;
Moving Forward
This knowledge equips us with better tools for understanding and improving the world:
📈 Strategic Implications:
Focus energy on evidence-based solutions, rely on data and avoid listening to traditional media negative sentiments and fake news;
Maintain realistic optimism;
Share accurate information backed up by data and research;
Balance attention between problems and progress, take a step back and see things in perspective. Are we really worse off?
This quote from Max Roser really sums it up:
"The world is getting better AND the world is awful AND the world can be much better." (Max Roser)
3. QUESTION FOR THE READER:
Next time someone tells you everything's getting worse, maybe ask them "compared to when? What metrics do you have to show it?”
Closing Thoughts
As always, hope you enjoyed the read and let me know what you think in the comments!
For me, the nightstand represents a space where I leave many of the things that are on my mind when I go to bed, and I started this newsletter to share some of those reflections and content with readers.
If you like this newsletter, please subscribe and share it with friends!
Stay curious, stay open.
Gianluca